How do you create a simulated triangle, and what is it for?

Creating simulated triangles is one way of testing whether you have a 'good' model for your data. If you can't distinguish the real from the simulated data, it is plausible that the model could have produced the real data.

To create a simulated triangle, follow these steps:

1. In PTF, with the appropriate model loaded, choose Test->Simulate Triangles from Model. Choose the number of the simulated triangles you want to create then click Simulate.
2. Click on the Triangle Group tab to return to the Triangle Group window and click on the Models tab.
3. Select the model you just simulated and drag-and-drop it to each of the simulated triangles in the left-hand pane.
4. Select each of the new model/simulated triangle combinations in the right-hand pane and press Ctrl+O. This will take you into PTF with the model loaded for each of the simulated triangles.
   
   

   

5. Compare the residual plots for the simulated triangles with the plots for the original data. They should look similar if the original model is a good model. Also check the Diagnostic Tools and Forecast Summary (Errors and Comparisons) to see if they are similar between the real and simulated data.

We have data for every quarter (or month) of development corresponding to each accident year. Can ICRFS-Plus™ model an uneven triangle?

Yes, this feature is available from ICRFS-Plus™ version 10.2 onward.

What means are available to expose ICRFS-Plus™ to other applications? How do you import data into/export data from an ICRFS-Plus™ database?

ICRFS-Plus™ can be exposed to other applications via ICRFS COM or via XML.